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Specter In Early Trouble?
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| U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter, D-Pa., far left, and Pat Toomey, right, prepare for the start of a tape-delayed televised debate on April 3, 2004, in the studios of CBS affiliate WTAJ -TV in Altoona. In center is moderator John Baer. Mr. Specter’s lead is shrinking against Mr. Toomey in their 2009 Senate race, according to a new poll. (Gary M. Baranec/Associated Press) |
Poll Shows Democrat Convert’s Lead Shrinking
By JOE MURRAY, The Bulletin
If Pennsylvania U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter was expecting an easy shot at winning a sixth term in the U.S. Senate after he defected to the Democratic Party, a new poll is poised to give the longtime lawmaker a dose of reality.
Mr. Specter’s lead against likely Republican rival Pat Toomey is shrinking, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released Thursday. If the Pennsylvania U.S. Senate race were held today, 46 percent would vote for Mr. Specter and 37 percent would support Mr. Toomey.
And even though Mr. Toomey trails Mr. Specter by 9 points, the conservative candidate shaved 11 points off Mr. Specter’s lead since the beginning of May. In that Quinnipiac poll, released May 4, Mr. Toomey trailed by 20 points.
“Sen. Arlen Specter’s numbers have slipped since the controversy that followed his switch to the Democratic Party, but he’s still better off than he would have been if he stayed a Republican and faced a tough primary challenge from former Rep. Pat Toomey,” said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
Mr. Toomey dominated polls taken prior to Mr. Specter’s defection, but the conservative challenger’s quick turnaround indicates a large number of Pennsylvanians may be harboring some hard feelings toward their incumbent senator.
A slim majority of Pennsylvania voters, 51 percent, approve of Mr. Specter’s job performance. Thirty-nine percent disapprove. This marks a 5-point drop for Mr. Specter, as his margin on May 4 was 56-36 percent.
Voters are also beginning to question whether Mr. Specter should be re-elected. According to the poll, voters are split 42-43 percent as to whether he deserves another term. This is down from 49-41 percent on May 4.
Despite the deteriorating numbers, some say there is evidence to suggest Mr. Specter might be able to pull out a victory.
“Running as a Democrat, the senator leads Toomey by 9 points, down from 20 points right after his conversion,” Mr. Richards said.
“But now that he’s got President Barack Obama and Gov. Ed Rendell on his side, Specter should be able to hold the edge over the conservative Republican. At this point, none of the other names mentioned as candidates in either party is well enough known to make a challenge.”
There is, however, one wrinkle for Mr. Specter — U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak, D-7th, of Delaware County.
Mr. Sestak has stated he intends to challenge Mr. Specter in the Democratic Primary. The poll showed
him earning a fifth of the vote against Mr. Specter although he has not begun formally campaigning.
This, however, will most likely change if the popular congressman runs because his campaign will likely make an issue of Mr. Specter’s party switch and seek to undermine the former Republican’s Democratic credentials.
Joe Murray can be reached at jmurray@thebulletin.us
Mr. Specter’s lead against likely Republican rival Pat Toomey is shrinking, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released Thursday. If the Pennsylvania U.S. Senate race were held today, 46 percent would vote for Mr. Specter and 37 percent would support Mr. Toomey.
And even though Mr. Toomey trails Mr. Specter by 9 points, the conservative candidate shaved 11 points off Mr. Specter’s lead since the beginning of May. In that Quinnipiac poll, released May 4, Mr. Toomey trailed by 20 points.
“Sen. Arlen Specter’s numbers have slipped since the controversy that followed his switch to the Democratic Party, but he’s still better off than he would have been if he stayed a Republican and faced a tough primary challenge from former Rep. Pat Toomey,” said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
Mr. Toomey dominated polls taken prior to Mr. Specter’s defection, but the conservative challenger’s quick turnaround indicates a large number of Pennsylvanians may be harboring some hard feelings toward their incumbent senator.
A slim majority of Pennsylvania voters, 51 percent, approve of Mr. Specter’s job performance. Thirty-nine percent disapprove. This marks a 5-point drop for Mr. Specter, as his margin on May 4 was 56-36 percent.
Voters are also beginning to question whether Mr. Specter should be re-elected. According to the poll, voters are split 42-43 percent as to whether he deserves another term. This is down from 49-41 percent on May 4.
Despite the deteriorating numbers, some say there is evidence to suggest Mr. Specter might be able to pull out a victory.
“Running as a Democrat, the senator leads Toomey by 9 points, down from 20 points right after his conversion,” Mr. Richards said.
“But now that he’s got President Barack Obama and Gov. Ed Rendell on his side, Specter should be able to hold the edge over the conservative Republican. At this point, none of the other names mentioned as candidates in either party is well enough known to make a challenge.”
There is, however, one wrinkle for Mr. Specter — U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak, D-7th, of Delaware County.
Mr. Sestak has stated he intends to challenge Mr. Specter in the Democratic Primary. The poll showed
him earning a fifth of the vote against Mr. Specter although he has not begun formally campaigning.
This, however, will most likely change if the popular congressman runs because his campaign will likely make an issue of Mr. Specter’s party switch and seek to undermine the former Republican’s Democratic credentials.
Joe Murray can be reached at jmurray@thebulletin.us
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